Freight Keeps Shifting to Rail — and Truck Rates Are Holding Anyway

What the shift has not done is lower truck rates. Capacity constraints — regulatory pressure, rising bankruptcies, and fleets replacing equipment rather than adding to it — continue to support pricing. Spot rates remain well above year-ago levels even after modest weekly dips. Dry van spot still trails contract, but the gap has narrowed. Tender rejections stay elevated, around 12 to 13 percent, well above historical norms, while soft-but-stable demand keeps the market from softening further.

Peak season itself limits how far the shift can go. Rail network capacity is finite, and higher volume can increase dwell times and make service less reliable. When shippers need predictable delivery or shorter transit times, they keep freight on trucks instead. That helps explain why the intermodal shift has not pushed truck pricing down more sharply.

Spot-market activity is staying firm. Large shippers periodically place freight on the spot board when internal or contracted capacity is constrained — Walmart has done so during recent surges — adding temporary load volume without broadly pressuring rates. Load postings stay above five-year averages while rates hold. With high fuel, limited new truck capacity, and ongoing intermodal growth, pricing support is likely to continue into peak season even as more freight finds its way onto rail.

For drivers, the takeaway is mixed but steady: the freight is not disappearing, it is splitting. The long, predictable lanes are the ones most likely to go rail. The freight that stays on trucks is the freight that needs a driver — tight windows, short transit, service a train cannot promise. That is the work that keeps paying.